Takeaways from the immediate aftermath of the hard fork

As we wrote yesterday, the blockchain token market is at a crucial crossroads. The market will either break much higher, or much lower post fork.

Preliminary market action in the hours post fork point to a break towards the upside. This could easily be a temporary euphoria rather than a definitive market move. Two macro cases are still possible...

  • Bull case: Uncertainty eliminated. Similar to S&P 500 performance post US elections last year, investors react positively once a choice is definitively made. 
  • Bear case: Sell the news. Investors hyping price leading up to a major event which cannot sustain and breaks to the downside.  

Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash combined market cap

Fork seems to have slightly inflated the overall marketcap of the two tokens. BTC falls from ~2900 USD pre fork to ~2700 USD post fork. Difficult to tell but BCC futures  are trading ~350 USD  on HitBTC (only exchange currently posting rates to coinmarketcap.com)

bcc

Alts surge

Narrative fits that investors flocked to BTC for the fork to claim "free" BCC tokens. Post fork many alts have surged 10-20%. This brings them roughly back to level before the outflow of capital into BTC immediately before the fork. 

Onchain vs offchain

The scaling debate continues now with two separate options. BCC claims onchain is closer to Satoshi's original vision, offchain promises more efficient scalability. Reddit user ydtm offers a detailed and enlightening (if not conspiratorial) rational behind onchain vs offchain growth of the bitcoin protocol. 

BCC has also not achieved full viability. It remains to be seen if the hashing difficulty settings can be lowered to allow for the new network to process transactions.